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BOOK REVIEW
Gwynne Dyer, Climate Wars
Hardcover published by Random House Canada October 28, 2008.
By Ian Goodwillie | Posted on November 9, 2008
If you woke up this morning thinking, “Hey, I want to read a book that’s going to scare the living crap out of me,” then this is the book to choose. London-based Canadian journalist Gwynne Dyer is recognized as one of the world’s top geopolitical analysts, conflict authors and syndicated columnists focusing on war history and studies. And he is well qualified for such a status, having served in the U.S., Canadian and British Navies, as well as holding a Ph.D. in War History from the University of London.
Climate Wars is Dyer’s look at the none-too-distant future of climate change. The essential point of his analysis is that the continuing change in our global climate will force ruling powers into posturing and combat for the world’s resources - something we are already seeing hints of today. Taken from candid interviews and exhaustive research, the scenarios presented seem shockingly true, outlining political unrest and economic collapse as some of the consequences of climate change.
The only concern contributing to a difficult read is the information discussed is repeated several times. It also feels rushed in some areas due to the shear volume of information being presented. That said, this information is meticulously collected and expertly analyzed. And while the potential outcomes may seem dire, there are points of hope presented in the book. Hopefully, people are reading.
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While I respect Gwynne Dyer’s work, he is not the first on this topic. For the original, see Roy Woodbridge, “The Next World War: Tribes, Cities, Nations, and Ecological Decline” (U of Toronto P, 2004).
Heard Dyer speak on Climate Wars for 90 minutes without notes or slides last night. What he brings to this topic is powerful skills in geopolitical context, strategy and exposition. When I have heard him speak previously, his faith in “democracy” seemed to me foolish. He has dropped that notion from this presentation and what he has to say leaves little wiggle room for solipsistic (great word for 21st century selfishness) evasions. He’s doing a good job in his speaking tour. A job that needs doing.
I also heard Gwynne Dyer speak today for an hour and a half on climate change, without any notes or prompts. He was brilliant. It was a fantastic presentation, that contained dry humour to keep it a little bit lighter as the points that he discusses are quite depressing. He was absolutely fascinating to listen to, and I was very much impressed with his knowledge on the subject and his extremely precise analysis on what is going on, and what may go on in the future about climate change. I have not read the book, but I think that I will.
I heard Mr. Dyer’s comments on a CBC Radio interview, and I am reading this book.
Calgarians will find at least one part of his book interesting, but perhaps not for the reaon one might expect. Most Canadians may not know of the “Chinook Arch” weather event that occurs with some regularity in the Rocky Mountain foothills. Knowledgeable Calgarians are aware that “adiabatic heating” of the descending air is responsible for these pleasant reprieves from winter’s chill.
Early on, Dyer describes “Hadley Cells” - a major system component driving the Earth’s climate. Briefly, surface air at the equator rises and follows paths to higher latitude bands - both north and south of the Earth’s equator - where it descends (later completing the loop as “trade winds” back to the equator). The adiabatic heating effect (familiar to Calgarians) is what gives hot, dry air to the Earth’s desert regions at these latitudes.
The breadbasket regions of reliable rainfall are located just outside the desert regions, toward the poles. Global Warming affects the size and reach of these Hadley Cells, causing the hot, dry air to descend at progressively higher latitiudes (further from the equator). In turn, the regions of reliable rainfall creep to higher latitudes.
End game: Climate Wars - as the mass migration of starving and displaced people leads to geo-political instability on a scale never seen - all while rising sea levels and stronger weather events drive urban dwellers away from coastal cities.
This book is a must read.
I heard him speak on the 7th, and then went and read the book. I highly recommend reading the book, but not before bedtime, as he’s able to develop some of the very worst case scenarios. And to be fair, Dyer is not claiming to be the first on this topic, and his book contains more recent (2007) scholarship. I hope we are up to the challenge Dyer identifies. I was a bit surprised by how dead he pronounces the climate skeptics movement to be: I am not at all sure that it’s a spent political force, to our great misfortune.